Why Stable Freight Feels Impossible Right Now (And What Veteran Carriers Know That You Don't)

If you've spent the last two years checking load boards multiple times a day, watching rates that barely cover your costs, and wondering if the market will ever recover, you're not imagining things. The trucking industry just lived through its longest freight recession on record.

That's not a figure of speech. According to FTR Transportation Intelligence, the period from 2022 through 2025 represents "the longest period of consistently unfavorable market conditions since the Great Recession." For small carriers and owner-operators who rely on the spot market, this wasn't a slowdown. It was a grinding, multi-year test of survival.

Some carriers made it through. Many didn't. And the difference between those two groups has less to do with luck than most people think.

The Reality Nobody Warned You About

The freight recession didn't announce itself with a single dramatic crash. It crept in. Consumer spending shifted from goods to services after 2021. Retailers found themselves overstocked and cut back on orders. Spot rates started sliding in April 2022 and kept falling for over two years.

By early 2025, national dry van spot rates had stabilized near $2.00 per mile. That sounds reasonable until you look at the cost side. The American Transportation Research Institute reported that the average marginal cost to operate a truck hit $2.26 per mile in 2024. Do that math, and you see why so many carriers couldn't hold on.

The numbers tell a brutal story. During the pandemic, the carrier population exploded. According to TIME, for-hire carriers went from about 241,000 in June 2020 to over 475,000 by July 2023. That's a 96% increase in just three years. Then the music stopped.

FMCSA data shows that over 17,500 operating authorities were lost in the 24 months leading into late 2025. The population has declined in 18 of the last 24 months. When FleetOwner analyzed the first four months of 2023 alone, they found 31,278 trucking companies gave up their authority. Of those, 79% were one-truck operators.

If you're still running, you've already beaten the odds. But surviving isn't the same as thriving.

Why "Just Wait It Out" Isn't a Strategy

Every freight recession eventually ends. The market is cyclical. Capacity tightens, rates recover, and carriers who held on get rewarded. That's the theory.

The problem is that "eventually" can take a very long time. And while you're waiting, the bills keep coming. Insurance premiums have climbed steadily. Diesel, while more stable than 2022 peaks, remains elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels. Equipment costs, maintenance, tires, permits, tolls: none of these pause while you wait for better rates.

The carriers who went under didn't fail because they were bad operators. Many of them were skilled drivers with years of experience. They failed because their business model had a single point of failure: dependency on spot market conditions they couldn't control.

When spot rates dropped, their revenue dropped. When fuel spiked, their margins disappeared. When payment delays stretched past 45 or 60 days, their cash flow collapsed. Every month was a gamble on whether this would be the month things turned around.

Some carriers held on by factoring invoices, which ate into their already thin margins. Others ran loads at a loss just to keep wheels turning. NBC News reported that drivers went from earning about $1 per mile in profit during 2021 to just 3 cents per mile by 2023, while operating costs stayed around 40 cents per mile.

That's not a business. That's a slow bleed.

The Hidden Costs of Rate Volatility

The per-mile rate you see on a load board doesn't tell the whole story. Trucking market volatility creates costs that don't show up in any single transaction but compound over time.

Cash flow unpredictability forces you into defensive mode. You can't plan equipment upgrades when you don't know what next month looks like. You can't hire help when revenue swings 30% or more month to month. You can't negotiate better terms with vendors when your own income is uncertain.

Factoring fees take 2% to 5% off the top of every invoice. On a $2,000 load, that's $40 to $100 gone before you even see the money. Over a year, factoring costs can easily exceed what you'd pay for additional insurance coverage or better equipment maintenance.

Deadhead miles increase when you're scrambling for any available load rather than planning efficient routes. Running empty to grab a $1.80 per mile load 200 miles away isn't profitable, but when you're desperate for revenue, you take it anyway.

Mental overhead is real, even if it doesn't show up on a balance sheet. Checking load boards obsessively, calculating whether a rate covers your costs, worrying about making payments: this eats time and energy that could go toward growing your business.

The carriers who closed their doors didn't just lose money. They lost the ability to think beyond next week.

What Separates Carriers Who Thrive From Those Who Struggle

When ACT Research analyzed the freight recession's impact, they found something interesting. The pain wasn't distributed evenly. FTR's Avery Vise put it plainly: "The challenges are not uniform as the current market is hitting small carriers much harder than larger ones."

Why? It's not because larger carriers have better drivers or newer trucks. It's because they have something small carriers often lack: diversified revenue streams.

A carrier with multiple freight sources can absorb the hit when one source dries up. When spot rates collapse, they lean on contract relationships. When one customer cuts orders, they have others to fill the gap. When economic conditions shift, they're not betting everything on a single market segment.

This isn't about size. It's about structure.

Some of the most resilient small carriers are the ones who built relationships with shippers that offer consistent freight. Others found specialized niches where demand stayed steady even during the broader downturn. And a smaller number discovered freight sources most carriers don't even know exist.

The carriers who came out of this freight recession stronger didn't just wait for conditions to improve. They changed what they were waiting with.

The Freight Source Most Carriers Never Consider

Here's something that might surprise you: while commercial freight volumes dropped, while spot rates cratered, while thousands of carriers went under, one category of freight kept moving.

The U.S. military moves an enormous amount of freight every year. Not just tanks and equipment for deployment, but everyday supplies, food, maintenance materials, and general cargo to over 450 bases across the country. This freight has to move regardless of what the commercial market is doing.

And yes, small carriers can haul it.

The military contracts with Transportation Service Providers through a program most trucking companies have never heard of. The process isn't simple. You need at least three years of continuous DOT authority, specific registrations, a performance bond, and proper insurance. The barrier to entry is real.

But the benefits are equally real. Payment within 72 hours through an electronic system. No chasing customers for money. No factoring fees eating your margins. Standardized rates that don't change based on who you know or how desperate you sound on the phone.

This isn't a silver bullet. Government freight won't replace your entire business overnight, and the qualification process takes real effort. But for carriers who meet the requirements, it represents something rare in trucking: consistent freight revenue that doesn't disappear when the economy hiccups.

The Question Worth Asking

The freight recession that started in 2022 exposed a structural vulnerability in how most small carriers operate. Too much dependence on a single freight source. Too much exposure to rate volatility. Too little cushion when conditions turn.

The market is showing early signs of stabilization heading into 2026. Capacity has tightened. Carrier exits have slowed. Some analysts see a modest recovery on the horizon.

But here's the thing about cycles: they cycle. The next downturn will come eventually, even if nobody knows when. The carriers who struggle through it will be the ones who are still depending entirely on whatever rates the spot market decides to offer.

The carriers who thrive will be the ones who built something different while they had the chance.

If you've got three or more years of continuous operating authority, clean records, and the ability to meet basic insurance and bonding requirements, you have options you might not know about. Government freight is one of them. There are others.

The point isn't that any single freight source will solve all your problems. The point is that trucking market volatility is a known risk, and the only real protection against it is not being dependent on a single market.

The veteran carriers who made it through this recession understood that. The ones who'll make it through the next one are the ones who learn it now.

Looking for more stable, consistent freight revenue? Learn what it actually takes to become an approved military freight carrier in our complete guide to military freight for truckers.